Predicting

Initiated by Philip Pruitt
 * Making Predictions **

 The ability of a reader to comprehend a given text involves a series of cognitive thought processes that occur when interacting with the text. This interaction is an ongoing, active process that involves cognizant, deliberate use of skills and strategies working together. One of these strategies is the ability to make predictions about the text as reading progresses.
 * Introduction **

 A prediction is simply a guess about what the text is about or about what will happen next in a text. “As they read, good readers frequently make predictions about what is to come.” (Duke & Pearson, 2002). Although it sounds fairly simple, there is a lot of processing that is required to predict successfully. Not only does it involve an understanding of the immediate text that is being read, but it also involves the application of a reader’s prior knowledge and understanding of the type of text, the context, and other factors that could affect the reader’s understanding. So in order to teach readers how to make effective predictions, it’s important for them to know how to access their prior knowledge.
 * Definition **

 According to the National Reading Panel, comprehension is a critical component in the development of reading skills. Comprehension is the goal at which all other reading practices are aimed; therefore the teaching of comprehension skills cannot be overlooked. Comprehension is expanded when a reader intentionally connects what he reads in the text to his own knowledge and experiences. Their comprehension can be aided by teaching them specific strategies to overcome any barriers they may encounter while reading. Making predictions during reading aids the reader by constantly using their knowledge to interact and to determine what will happen next. It also interacts with other skills such as summarizing and understanding the story structure in order to create a logical prediction. Most data suggests that a combination of these strategic skills produces better results in comprehension, so a strategy such as predicting that involves effective summarizing, accessing prior knowledge, and an understanding of the story structure has the potential to produce positive results for a reader in the realm of comprehension.
 * The Need **

 In order to understand the research for making predictions, we must understand the importance and effect that prior knowledge has on a reader first. Since predictions involve the use of prior knowledge, it’s necessary to understand the role it has in the comprehension process. According to Bartlett (1932), prior knowledge is a primary constituent when it comes to constructing new learning. He stated that learning is an active, constructive process that continually seeks to create meaning in mental structures called schemata. These schemata analyze and connect learning experiences. It is on these learning experiences that we make predictions. Readers predict based on what they already understand, so it is an active engagement between what the reader already knows and what the reader is learning. As a reader progresses through a text, they are constantly bombarded with new information. Thus, they must constantly adapt their predictions as the new knowledge is gained. Without the ability to access their prior knowledge, they are weakened in their ability to make predictions and therefore comprehension may be affected adversely in the process. Therefore, it’s important to teach them first how to access their prior knowledge before making predictions within and about the text.  Now that the effect of a reader’s prior knowledge in the prediction process has been addressed, the effect predicting can have on a reader’s comprehension can better be explained. Predicting is a process that prompts the reader to think about what they will encounter in the text based on what they have already read. It is a continual process that activates the reader’s mind in two different components. One, the reader attempts to stay a step ahead trying to determine what will happen next, and two, the reader continually revises the original predictions and adapts to what is being discovered. Both of these components are important in the process of predicting. Getting students to apply prediction behaviors has been shown to increase their interest and their memory of what they read (Anderson, Wilkinson, Mason & Shirey. 1987). However, these predictions encouraged comprehension of the story only when predictions were purposefully compared to further readings from the text, signifying that the prediction revising process that compares the text to the reader’s knowledge may be as helpful as making the prediction (Fielding, Anderson, and Pearson, 1990). “These studies suggest a variety of productive ways of encouraging students to engage their knowledge and experience prior to reading. They also suggest that in nearly all cases, the impact on story understanding is positive…” (Duke & Pearson, 2002).
 * The Research **

 Like any reading comprehension strategy, prediction must be taught to students. The cognitive processes involved don’t always come naturally, so the teacher must intercede and lead in the steps necessary for readers to make good, evaluative predictions, based on their prior knowledge and what they are learning from their text. Duke and Pearson (2002) suggest the following pattern for teaching comprehension strategies:
 * Methods and Implementation **


 * “An explicit description of the strategy and when and how it should be used.”
 * The skill and all its components should be taught to the student, including frequency of use and what steps should be involved when attempting it.
 * “Teacher and/or student modeling of the strategy in action.”
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">The teacher should use an authentic text. Reading aloud would be an excellent way to model it. As the text is read, thinking-aloud to the class will allow them to see how to manipulate the text to make the prediction.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">“Collaborative use of the strategy in action.”
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">After several modeled examples have been given, invitations to the class should be made to allow them to begin trying the strategy within a safe environment. Opportunities should be given to the students to attempt the strategy with direct feedback.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">“Guided practice using the strategy with gradual release of responsibility.”
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Allow the students to practice together in small groups making predictions as they go. Giving them specific criteria as they read and attempt predictions will allow them to know that they are following the steps needed to make accurate predictions.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">“Independent use of the strategy.”
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Finally, students should be attempting the strategy on their own as they continue reading their text. Again, it’s important to give them criteria to meet as they attempt the strategy.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">The goal of this process is to gradually release control over to the students. Discuss the strategy and process with the students Model the process for them to give them an idea of what it should look like. Then, scaffold the release of control over to them, by groups, pairs, and then individually.

<span style="font-family: 'times new roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;"> There are several approaches available to help students understand the process of making predictions. First, we’ll use a KWL as a tool to access their prior knowledge since predictions are largely based off what they already know. Then prediction will be separated into two stages. First, by previewing the text, students will make predictions on what the book will be about, the conflict involved, etc. The second stage will involve during reading processes. Students will make predictions as they read as to what will happen next.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Modeling the Strategy: **


 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Accessing Prior Knowledge using a KWL – A KWL is a tool to help students see what they already know and what they want to learn from a text. K-stands for “What I Know.” Students will be given a topic or concept from the text to allow them to see what information they bring to the reading situation. W-stands for “What I Want to Know.” Students will generate questions to help guide their reading about the topic. This also encourages motivation. L-stands for “What I Learned.” After students have read, they will return to their KWL and complete the final column. This is only one technique to help students incorporate the prior knowledge that they already have in order to use it to interact with the text.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Before reading Prediction – By previewing the text students can gain a basic idea to connect their prior knowledge to. Then based on what they already know, they can make predictions about what the text will be about. Students should be encouraged to use their KWL to make their predictions, ensuring that their predictions align with what they already know. That will allow them to see the connection between their prior knowledge and the predicting ability.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">During Reading Prediction – While they read, students should be making predictions about what will happen in the text. A simple way to keep track of their predictions is by using a three column chart. In the first column they can write their prediction. In the second they can describe what knowledge they have they prompted their prediction. In the final column they can keep track of the actualities of the story to see whether their predictions were accurate. Students should continually revising their predictions as they read in order to apply the new knowledge they gain as the text progresses.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Again, these are only a few possible techniques to implement the prediction strategy in the classroom. Teachers should be cognizant of how students apply the strategy to their reading comprehension ability and seek to make adjustments or add scaffolding when necessary. It’s important to keep in mind that one size does not fit all, and that each student processes their schema differently. <span style="font-family: 'times new roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;"> For at-risk students and Ells, predicting can be a valuable strategy. It allows them to connect what they know with what they are encountering and thus to incorporate this knowledge into their learning. Good strategies help make Good readers, and good readers become good learners. Strategies help students in reading and comprehending texts that allow them to be successful. It’s also important to note to students that predicting is only one strategy that should be implemented with various other comprehension strategies as they read. One strategy alone will not do the trick, but a combination and interlacing of varied strategies are required in order to fully comprehend a text.
 * <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Things to Keep in Mind **


 * <span style="color: #292526; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">References **

<span style="color: #292526; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Anderson, R.C., Wilkinson, I.A.G., Mason, J.M., & Shirley, l. (1987, December). “Prediction Versus Word-Level Question.” In R.C. Anderson (Chair), //Experimental Investigations of Prediction in Small-Group ReadingLessons.// Symposium conducted at the 37th annual meeting of the National Reading Conference, St. Petersburg Beach, FL.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">BARTLETT,F .C. (1932) //Remembering: a Study in Experimental and Social Psychology// (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press).

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Duke, N.K. & Pearson, D. (2002). “Effective Practices for Developing Reading Comprehension.” In A.E. Farstrup & S.J. Samuels (Eds.). //What Research Has To Say About Reading Instruction//(3rd ed., pp. 205–242). Newark, DE: International Reading Association.

<span style="color: #292526; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 16px;">Fielding, L.G., Anderson, R.C., & Pearson, P.D. (1990). “How Discussion Questions Influence Children’s Story Understanding” (Tech. Rep. No. 490). Urbana, IL: University of Illinois, Center for the Study of Reading.